CMan's 2013 NBA Finals Predictions!

The NBA Finals are upon us and the two teams, Miami and San Antonio, are no stranger to the leagues marquee event. Between the two teams they have 9 finals appearances and 6 NBA Championships. The Spurs have the more impressive pedigree with 4 NBA titles but the Heat are making their third straight appearance in the finals. There is one stat worth pointing out, the Spurs are 4-0 (16-6 games played) in the Finals, Miami is 2-1 (10-7).

 

This is a tough series to call. To date I have picked 11 of the 14 series correctly. It should be 12 but my heart wouldn't let me pick against the Thunder, despite the loss of Westbrook. Conventional wisdom and most of the talking heads will pick the Heat, pointing to home court advantage and the fact that LeBron James is playing. If Miami loses the finals they will quickly begin to look like the Atlanta Braves baseball team. The Braves had the talent to win multiple championships From 1991  to 2005. During that span the team won 14 division titles including 11 straight and five NL championships but could only manage 1 world series ring. Granted, the Heat have already won 2 titles but they were 6 years apart and only Dwayne Wade and a few bench players were around for both. The current roster is 1-1. the Heat were up and down during the playoffs. The only team that I thought posed a real threat was Indiana, and threat they did. The Heat are 12-4 in this seasons playoffs, including one sweep against the Bucks and a tough 7 game series with the Pacers. Miami simply doesn't look as dominant and unbeatable as they did during their 27 game win streak this season.

 

 

 

 

The Spurs come to Miami fresh off a 4-0 sweep of the intimidating Memphis Grizzlies and well rested, having not played since May 27th. San Antonio comes in as the elder statesmen of the NBA. The Spurs have a perfect record in the Finals and won the last in a sweep of Cleveland in the 06-07 NBA season. The star player on that Cleveland team was none other than LeBron James. A win and the Spurs will go down as a dynasty having won 5 championships in 13 years. Greg Popovich will tie Pat Riley at #4 on the list of NBA coaches with the most NBA titles at 5 each. San Antonio is a well coached team that is all business on the court. They play a very consistent 48 minutes of basketball game in and game out. The Spurs are 12-2 this playoff season with sweeps against the Lakers and Memphis. They are not easy to beat and play as well on the road as they do at home, especially in the playoffs.

 

 So how do the teams match up? Miami has James, Bosh and Wade. The Spurs counter with Duncan, Ginobli and Parker. Duncan will control the paint and will keep the Heat big men at bay. Parker and Ginobli will give fits to the Heat guards and forwards with their ball movement, shooting ability and defense. The bench match up heavily favors the Spurs with the key sub being Tiago Splitter. The Coaching match up is a no brainer. I am not convinced that Eric Spoelstra does much in game coaching. "Pop", on the other hand, is a field general with a proven track record. Now, does this mean a Spurs Championship? Not at all. the Heat still have LeBron James and he has a much better supporting cast than the Cleveland team that lost to the Spurs in 2007. However, Miami will have to play near perfect, team basketball to pull this series out. Bosh and Wade will have to show up each game. James is good but he can't beat the Spurs alone.

 

I think that San Antonio will steal one of the first two in Miami and regain home court. I also believe that if they do that, they can win the series. They will have to win it in 6 though, because if the Heat can get it to a game 7, they will win it. If Miami wins the first 2 games, you can call the series in favor of the Heat.

 

Having said all that, my money is on San Antonio. I say the Spurs win the title in 6 games 4-2.

 

Now, Let's play some ball!

CMan's Conference Finals Recaps

Eastern Conference:

 

 

 

The conference finals have ended and while I correctly picked the ultimate winners, I wasn't so good at forecasting one of the two series.

#1 Miami vs #3 Indiana (Heat 4-3)

This series played out like I thought it would, plus 1 game. I knew the Pacers would give the Heat a strong series and they did. In fact, they outplayed Miami in all but two games. They just happened to be games that the Heat looked at as must wins. Despite the obvious strengths that Indiana brought to the series I still believed that Miami would eventually return to the finals for a third straight season.

The Pacers did expose two serious weaknesses of the Heat that, if not corrected, could come back to haunt them in the finals. Miami has gone through the regular season and the playoffs with a sense of arrogance. They seem to be of the mindset that they can win if they want to...if they have to. I think Indiana rattled them a little. The competition got progressively better against the Heat in the playoffs and they could have easily lost this series. LeBron James won it for them. That brings me to the second weakness, Bosh and Wade. For the heat to win the finals they must have game in and game out production from at least two of the big three if not all three. They did not get that kind of support from Wade and Bosh throughout the Pacers series. They're going to need it to beat the Spurs.

 

Western Conference:

 

 

 

#2 San Antonio vs #5 Memphis (Spurs 4-0)

I picked the Spurs to win this series...in seven games. A San Antonio sweep never occurred to me. Especially after the way Golden State pushed the Spurs. Memphis looked unfazed after the Thunder series and while I thought the Spurs would win the series, I thought the Grizzlies would make them work for it. Conventional wisdom says that Memphis used it's entire tank to get out of a tough series with OKC. However, I believe that they just ran in to a superior Spurs team that was irritated by the Warriors and is now focused on one thing. Winning one more NBA title.

Memphis is a tough team with an even tougher coach. San Antonio is a well coached, robotic team that plays as well together as any team, even Miami. The Spurs played 4 systematic, 48 minute games. It didn't matter what city they were playing in or in front of what crowd. In fact, I had to look at center court during a couple of the games just to see where they were playing. As for the outcome of the games, they might as well all been in Texas. Memphis wasn't even in the games. They seemed to be 15 - 20 points down at the beginning of each game, fighting from behind the entire series. By game 4 the Grizzlies were demoralized and resigned to losing the series. The Spurs were business like the entire series and hardly celebrated the fact that they were Western Conference Champions. The job is not finished and they know it.

As for Memphis, we discover after the series that there is turmoil within the organization. The new ownership group, responsible for the Rudy Gay trade, has more mischief up their collective sleeves. This week they granted head coach Lionel Hollins permission to entertain other coaching positions. Hollins is having a difficult time adapting to the micro-management style of the new owners. If they let Hollins leave, Memphis will return to it's previous status as a non factor in the Western Conference. The Grizzlies are who they are because of Lionel Hollins. Without him, they are just another NBA team.

On to the NBA Finals!