The End - CMan's recap of the Finals.

     The 2013 NBA season has come to a close. The reigning champion Miami Heat have successfully retained their title as NBA Champions. Three straight trips to the finals and 2 straight finals victories. Are we witnessing the development of a dynasty? Time will tell but I, for one, don't think we are.

 

     The NBA finals were a lot harder for the Heat than most thought. Most believed that the Heat would win 4-1 or even sweep. They had the King, Bosh, Birdman and 2-time NBA Champ D. Wade. They even had Pat Riley calling the shots from the front office. They had home court advantage.

 

     The Spurs looked old and tired on paper and despite dispatching the tough Grizzlies in a conference finals sweep, the same Spurs team was pushed by an upstart Golden State squad in the conference semi-finals. They had to win it in Miami. They looked poised for defeat.

 

     For five games it looked like San Antonio had figured out a way to win. They got scoring from unlikely places. They shot an NBA record percentage from the 3 point line. They played sweeping defense. They seemed to always be playing from a deficit, yet they always fought back. Bosh and Wade could not seem to play well in the same game and with out support, King James could shoot or score to save the teams life.

 

     I stated in my pre-series prediction that the Spurs had to win one of the first two in Miami. They did. They had the team and momentum to close it in San Antonio but couldn't. That left the final two games in Miami. (By the way, does anyone else hate the format change in the finals?) The Spurs went in to game 6 with a 3-2 series lead. Win one of the last two and they were NBA Champions. It seemed a lock since neither team had managed to win 2 in a row in the series. I stated in my prediction that the Spurs had to win the series in 6. If they let Miami take it to a game 7, in Miami, the Heat would win. And they did. Miami won despite the fact that Chris Bosh did not score. D Wade found his stroke and so did the King. They key, however, was Shane Battier. Battier could not miss from 3 and at one point hit 6 straight. James added 5 treys himself.

 

     There were a lot of good things that came out of this series. Tim Duncan played like a seasoned veteran playing perhaps the best series of his storied career. A lot of role players for both teams contributed in a big way. Green, Neal and Diaw for the Spurs. Battier, Birdman and Chalmers for the Heat. Bad coaching moves were made by Pop and smart moves were made by Spoelstra. By the way, I was wrong in my series prediction, Eric Spoelstra can coach. It takes a smart and creative person to control a squad like the Heat and they obviously like playing for him.

 

     In the final analysis, the Heat won the series and deserved to. San Antonio played tough but could not get over the top. Miami, in the end, had to much power and home court advantage. It's tough to win a game 7 on the road.

 

     Having said all that, are the Heat on the verge of a dynasty? I think the answer is no. I believe the Heat will be challenged to get back to the Finals in 2014. Wade and Bosh are getting old. Wade is breaking down physically and Bosh can't hit a jumper anymore. LeBron is great but he can't do it on his own. Look at the 7 years he played in Cleveland. The Spurs exposed that weakness in the Heat's game. It takes a team, which explains why San Antonio almost pulled it off. No squad plays better as a team than the Spurs. Time will tell, but I see a different team form the East in the finals in 2014.

 

     It was a good season and no one could have asked for a better finals series. My hat is off to the Spurs and NBA Champion Miami Heat!

 

    

 

CMan's 2013 NBA Finals Predictions!

The NBA Finals are upon us and the two teams, Miami and San Antonio, are no stranger to the leagues marquee event. Between the two teams they have 9 finals appearances and 6 NBA Championships. The Spurs have the more impressive pedigree with 4 NBA titles but the Heat are making their third straight appearance in the finals. There is one stat worth pointing out, the Spurs are 4-0 (16-6 games played) in the Finals, Miami is 2-1 (10-7).

 

This is a tough series to call. To date I have picked 11 of the 14 series correctly. It should be 12 but my heart wouldn't let me pick against the Thunder, despite the loss of Westbrook. Conventional wisdom and most of the talking heads will pick the Heat, pointing to home court advantage and the fact that LeBron James is playing. If Miami loses the finals they will quickly begin to look like the Atlanta Braves baseball team. The Braves had the talent to win multiple championships From 1991  to 2005. During that span the team won 14 division titles including 11 straight and five NL championships but could only manage 1 world series ring. Granted, the Heat have already won 2 titles but they were 6 years apart and only Dwayne Wade and a few bench players were around for both. The current roster is 1-1. the Heat were up and down during the playoffs. The only team that I thought posed a real threat was Indiana, and threat they did. The Heat are 12-4 in this seasons playoffs, including one sweep against the Bucks and a tough 7 game series with the Pacers. Miami simply doesn't look as dominant and unbeatable as they did during their 27 game win streak this season.

 

 

 

 

The Spurs come to Miami fresh off a 4-0 sweep of the intimidating Memphis Grizzlies and well rested, having not played since May 27th. San Antonio comes in as the elder statesmen of the NBA. The Spurs have a perfect record in the Finals and won the last in a sweep of Cleveland in the 06-07 NBA season. The star player on that Cleveland team was none other than LeBron James. A win and the Spurs will go down as a dynasty having won 5 championships in 13 years. Greg Popovich will tie Pat Riley at #4 on the list of NBA coaches with the most NBA titles at 5 each. San Antonio is a well coached team that is all business on the court. They play a very consistent 48 minutes of basketball game in and game out. The Spurs are 12-2 this playoff season with sweeps against the Lakers and Memphis. They are not easy to beat and play as well on the road as they do at home, especially in the playoffs.

 

 So how do the teams match up? Miami has James, Bosh and Wade. The Spurs counter with Duncan, Ginobli and Parker. Duncan will control the paint and will keep the Heat big men at bay. Parker and Ginobli will give fits to the Heat guards and forwards with their ball movement, shooting ability and defense. The bench match up heavily favors the Spurs with the key sub being Tiago Splitter. The Coaching match up is a no brainer. I am not convinced that Eric Spoelstra does much in game coaching. "Pop", on the other hand, is a field general with a proven track record. Now, does this mean a Spurs Championship? Not at all. the Heat still have LeBron James and he has a much better supporting cast than the Cleveland team that lost to the Spurs in 2007. However, Miami will have to play near perfect, team basketball to pull this series out. Bosh and Wade will have to show up each game. James is good but he can't beat the Spurs alone.

 

I think that San Antonio will steal one of the first two in Miami and regain home court. I also believe that if they do that, they can win the series. They will have to win it in 6 though, because if the Heat can get it to a game 7, they will win it. If Miami wins the first 2 games, you can call the series in favor of the Heat.

 

Having said all that, my money is on San Antonio. I say the Spurs win the title in 6 games 4-2.

 

Now, Let's play some ball!

CMan's NBA Playoff First Round Matchups and Predictions

It's Playoff time again in the NBA! Welcome to the longest and most drawn out playoff format in professional sports. But, it's why they play the regular season.

I am going to do a quick breakdown of the first round match ups with predictions. Buster and I will be going head to head throughout the playoffs. May the best (or luckiest) man win.

To keep you interested, I am going to start in the East. This should force you to read all match ups until I get to the one everybody is waiting for, The Oklahoma City Thunder.

Here we go;

THE EASTERN CONFERENCE:

#1 Miami (66-16)  vs #8 Milwaukee (34-44)

 To begin with, any team that can't play .500 basketball during the regular season shouldn't qualify for the playoffs. But, we don't make the rules and they do need 8 teams to be fair. On the other hand, if the Heat were given a bye in this round, the results would be the same. The Bucks are a scrappy team but the Heat will want to take advantage of extra rest by sending the Bucks fishing early. Miami wins in a sweep, 4-0.

#2 New York (54-28) vs #7 Boston (41-40)

The Celtics have an emotional edge in this first round match up. The Boston marathon bombings are fresh in the minds of every American and the loss of Rajon Rondo for the season spurred Boston to pretty decent play in his absence. However, the emotion of recent events will probably only last until the tip-off of game 3 in The Garden, and maybe not even then if the Celtics limp in 0-2. Carmelo Anthony proved in the last half of the season that he can do what he wants if he puts his mind to it. The supporting staff led by Tyson Chandler will have winning on their mind and nothing else. I think emotion will give Boston at least 1 win in the series, maybe 2. The Garden remains one of the toughest home court advantages in the East and the Celtics still have Pierce and Garnett. But, it won't be enough to win the series. Knicks win 4-2.

#3 Indiana (49-32) vs  #6 Atlanta (44-38)

The Pacers are the best bet to unseat the Heat in the East this year. The Pacers won 2 of 3 from Miami this season and played them well. But,  they have to get past the Hawks first. The Atlanta Hawks, much like their NFL counterpart the Falcons, seem to play well in the regular season but falter in the playoffs. The Pacers pose a real threat. They are a complete team with out a real stand out superstar. They play solid team defense and score enough to win more often than lose. They are a tough match up for anyone. The Pacers have their eyes on a trip to Miami in the conference finals and they will see this series as warm up. I'll give the Hawks a game at home but I see the Pacers winning easy in the series. Pacers win 4-1.

#4 Brooklyn (49-33) vs #5 Chicago (45-37)

This series is a tough one to call. The Nets have been up and down this year and the Bulls have been dealt some bad breaks. The Bull's have proven that they can win in the playoffs with out Rose and win big. They went in to the playoffs last year as the team no one wanted to play, they come in this year the same way. I'm not sold on the Nets yet and won't be till they win a series. The Bulls have history and tradition, the Net's have a new name and address. I'm going to call this a back and forth series coming down to a 7th and deciding game. If the Bulls can get it to a game 7,  I say they take the series. Chicago, in a tough series, 4-3.


THE WESTERN CONFERENCE:


#1 Oklahoma City (60-22) vs #8 Houston (45-37)

I'll try not to be a homer here. When you look at this match up from a purely statistical standpoint, it's pretty darn even. Heck,  the Rockets even top the Thunder in several statistical categories. I covered most of Oklahoma City's weaknesses in my previous blog. They seem to have corrected most of them in the last two weeks of the season. This is the first round of the playoffs - statistics are thrown out the window, at least for the first couple of games. The Thunder tasted both sweet success and bitter defeat last year and they want redemption. They are a better team than the Rockets and when they play to their potential, they don't often get beat. They also have recent, valuable playoff experience that the Rockets lack. I'll give the Rockets a home win, just for the Harden factor, but the Thunder win the rest. OKC  wins 4-1.

#2 San Antonio (58-24) vs #7 LA Lakers (45-37)

Once the Spurs realized that the Thunder would likely take the top seed, they promptly secured the #2 seed by losing a couple of their last games. Kobe Bryant predicted that the Lakers would reach the playoffs, and they did, but they will have to go forward with out him. the Lakers did win their last game against the Rockets,  assuring that they wouldn't have to face their nemesis in Oklahoma City. LA has no desire to play the Thunder in a series. They won't fare much better with the Spurs. Popovich doesn't lose many series, especially in the first round. The Lakers can play well without Kobe, but not against quality competition, and not for a 7 game series. Will the Lakers win a game? Maybe. Will they challenge for the series? No. Spurs win, 4-1.

#3 Denver (57-25) vs #6 Golden State (47-35)

This should be a lopsided series in favor of the Nuggets. George Karl knows playoff basketball and Denver plays tough all the time. The loss of Gallinari will be tough to overcome in a 7 game series but Denver should find a way. Golden State is a good team but they don't have the year in year out playoff experience that the Nuggets do. The Warriors will compete but, in the end, the the Nuggets should win the series pretty easily. In fact, Denver in a sweep, 4-0.

#4 LA Clippers (56-26) vs #5 Memphis (56-26)

This series matches two teams that couldn't be any different. The high flying Clippers against the stingy, defensive minded Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are the team that no one wants to play in the West. They are playoff hardened and hungry. The Clippers are coming off a record season for the historically worst team in the West. They do have the best all round point guard in Chris Paul and the ever improving Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies counter with attitude and a simple lack of fear for any opponent. If the Clippers play fast, team ball and Paul controls the environment,  they will win. However, I think this comes down to a game 7 in the City of Angels. Clippers win, in a tough series, 4-3.

There you have it. If you were looking for a stat filled blog with statistical reasons for winners and losers, I apologize but that blog would have been long and boring. Hey, It's the first round. We will get a little deeper in to the numbers in the latter rounds, when they really matter.

I still believe the Oklahoma City Thunder will get through the West and claim their second consecutive Western Conference Championship. I'm not so sure about the Heat. They can't be near as hungry as they were last year. Although, they have proven that they can turn their game on and off at will. The Pacers and Knicks will have something to say about it before the dust settles. If I am wrong, get ready for a rematch of last years NBA finals.

For Buster.

Scoring Champion vs NBA Champion

        Thunder forward Kevin Durant posted his third triple double on Wednesday night in a 119 - 74 win over the New Orleans Hornets (soon to be Pelicans). All three of Durants triple doubles have come in this, his 6th NBA season. Durant has been a scorer his entire career. He has three straight NBA scoring titles and is staring down a rare fourth in a row. Durant is a pure scorer. He has shown the ability to score inside, outside and... well, from anywhere on the court. KD could have a very long and satisfying career just scoring. No one would think any less of him. In fact, there are plenty of fans and sports reporters that would like him to do just that. Many fans cringe when Durant favors passing over scoring. They cry foul when KD puts up blue collar point totals. Sports reporters claim that he is passing up good scoring opportunities in favor of serving up helpers for teammates like Thabo and Perk. Scoring a lot is fun, it's American (see soccer) and it puts fans in the seats. So why would Durant not just keep scoring? Why devote any time to anything else? After all, he is the best pure shooter in the NBA.

      Consider the following. Golden State star Steph Curry scored an NBA league high 54 points on Wednesday night.....in a 109-105 loss to the Knicks. Great individual night but not a great team result. This season, Durant came in committed to improving his rebounding and assist totals. It is my contention that KD is aware of his scoring ability. But, I believe that he also know that while individual  scoring will win games it's not likely a formula for a championship run. In addition, to be considered an elite player, in the same arena as Bird, Jordan, Magic and LeBron James, KD must be a complete player. Larry Bird, Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson all have  multiple League MVP titles and Multiple NBA Championships. LeBron will probably add another Championship to his two  MVP trophies. They also all excelled in scoring, rebounding and assists. Durant wants both trophies and he knows what he has to do to get them.

     Kevin Durant is a consummate team player. He makes those around him better. He is taking the next obvious step in his maturation as a player and a team leader. He is on the right track. KD's high scoring game this year is 52 points. That was the season high until Curry put up 54. Impressive? Yes, but let me do a little math. Durant's line on Wednesday was 18 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Lets say that each assist was worth 2.1 points (considering a few 3 point baskets) and half of his rebounds resulted in scores, again at 2.1 points. My math tells me that Durant had a hand in 61 of the teams 119 points or, roughly 50 percent of the scoring. And the team won.

     KD is young and smart. His scoring average is 28.5. Given the choice between Durant the scoring Champ or Durant the Triple double threat,  I'll take the triple double any day. Cut the man some slack. His new passion for passing and rebounding may not lead to many more scoring titles, but I believe it will eventually lead to an MVP or two and at least one NBA Championship, if not more.

For Buster.