I am going to do a quick breakdown of the first round match ups with predictions. Buster and I will be going head to head throughout the playoffs. May the best (or luckiest) man win.
To keep you interested, I am going to start in the East. This should force you to read all match ups until I get to the one everybody is waiting for, The Oklahoma City Thunder.
Here we go;
THE EASTERN CONFERENCE:
#1 Miami (66-16) vs #8 Milwaukee (34-44)
To begin with, any team that can't play .500 basketball during the regular season shouldn't qualify for the playoffs. But, we don't make the rules and they do need 8 teams to be fair. On the other hand, if the Heat were given a bye in this round, the results would be the same. The Bucks are a scrappy team but the Heat will want to take advantage of extra rest by sending the Bucks fishing early. Miami wins in a sweep, 4-0.
#2 New York (54-28) vs #7 Boston (41-40)
The Celtics have an emotional edge in this first round match up. The Boston marathon bombings are fresh in the minds of every American and the loss of Rajon Rondo for the season spurred Boston to pretty decent play in his absence. However, the emotion of recent events will probably only last until the tip-off of game 3 in The Garden, and maybe not even then if the Celtics limp in 0-2. Carmelo Anthony proved in the last half of the season that he can do what he wants if he puts his mind to it. The supporting staff led by Tyson Chandler will have winning on their mind and nothing else. I think emotion will give Boston at least 1 win in the series, maybe 2. The Garden remains one of the toughest home court advantages in the East and the Celtics still have Pierce and Garnett. But, it won't be enough to win the series. Knicks win 4-2.
#3 Indiana (49-32) vs #6 Atlanta (44-38)
The Pacers are the best bet to unseat the Heat in the East this year. The Pacers won 2 of 3 from Miami this season and played them well. But, they have to get past the Hawks first. The Atlanta Hawks, much like their NFL counterpart the Falcons, seem to play well in the regular season but falter in the playoffs. The Pacers pose a real threat. They are a complete team with out a real stand out superstar. They play solid team defense and score enough to win more often than lose. They are a tough match up for anyone. The Pacers have their eyes on a trip to Miami in the conference finals and they will see this series as warm up. I'll give the Hawks a game at home but I see the Pacers winning easy in the series. Pacers win 4-1.
#4 Brooklyn (49-33) vs #5 Chicago (45-37)
This series is a tough one to call. The Nets have been up and down this year and the Bulls have been dealt some bad breaks. The Bull's have proven that they can win in the playoffs with out Rose and win big. They went in to the playoffs last year as the team no one wanted to play, they come in this year the same way. I'm not sold on the Nets yet and won't be till they win a series. The Bulls have history and tradition, the Net's have a new name and address. I'm going to call this a back and forth series coming down to a 7th and deciding game. If the Bulls can get it to a game 7, I say they take the series. Chicago, in a tough series, 4-3.
THE WESTERN CONFERENCE:
#1 Oklahoma City (60-22) vs #8 Houston (45-37)
I'll try not to be a homer here. When you look at this match up from a purely statistical standpoint, it's pretty darn even. Heck, the Rockets even top the Thunder in several statistical categories. I covered most of Oklahoma City's weaknesses in my previous blog. They seem to have corrected most of them in the last two weeks of the season. This is the first round of the playoffs - statistics are thrown out the window, at least for the first couple of games. The Thunder tasted both sweet success and bitter defeat last year and they want redemption. They are a better team than the Rockets and when they play to their potential, they don't often get beat. They also have recent, valuable playoff experience that the Rockets lack. I'll give the Rockets a home win, just for the Harden factor, but the Thunder win the rest. OKC wins 4-1.
#2 San Antonio (58-24) vs #7 LA Lakers (45-37)
Once the Spurs realized that the Thunder would likely take the top seed, they promptly secured the #2 seed by losing a couple of their last games. Kobe Bryant predicted that the Lakers would reach the playoffs, and they did, but they will have to go forward with out him. the Lakers did win their last game against the Rockets, assuring that they wouldn't have to face their nemesis in Oklahoma City. LA has no desire to play the Thunder in a series. They won't fare much better with the Spurs. Popovich doesn't lose many series, especially in the first round. The Lakers can play well without Kobe, but not against quality competition, and not for a 7 game series. Will the Lakers win a game? Maybe. Will they challenge for the series? No. Spurs win, 4-1.
#3 Denver (57-25) vs #6 Golden State (47-35)
This should be a lopsided series in favor of the Nuggets. George Karl knows playoff basketball and Denver plays tough all the time. The loss of Gallinari will be tough to overcome in a 7 game series but Denver should find a way. Golden State is a good team but they don't have the year in year out playoff experience that the Nuggets do. The Warriors will compete but, in the end, the the Nuggets should win the series pretty easily. In fact, Denver in a sweep, 4-0.
#4 LA Clippers (56-26) vs #5 Memphis (56-26)
This series matches two teams that couldn't be any different. The high flying Clippers against the stingy, defensive minded Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are the team that no one wants to play in the West. They are playoff hardened and hungry. The Clippers are coming off a record season for the historically worst team in the West. They do have the best all round point guard in Chris Paul and the ever improving Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies counter with attitude and a simple lack of fear for any opponent. If the Clippers play fast, team ball and Paul controls the environment, they will win. However, I think this comes down to a game 7 in the City of Angels. Clippers win, in a tough series, 4-3.
There you have it. If you were looking for a stat filled blog with statistical reasons for winners and losers, I apologize but that blog would have been long and boring. Hey, It's the first round. We will get a little deeper in to the numbers in the latter rounds, when they really matter.
I still believe the Oklahoma City Thunder will get through the West and claim their second consecutive Western Conference Championship. I'm not so sure about the Heat. They can't be near as hungry as they were last year. Although, they have proven that they can turn their game on and off at will. The Pacers and Knicks will have something to say about it before the dust settles. If I am wrong, get ready for a rematch of last years NBA finals.
For Buster.
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