CMan's NBA Playoff First Round Matchups and Predictions

It's Playoff time again in the NBA! Welcome to the longest and most drawn out playoff format in professional sports. But, it's why they play the regular season.

I am going to do a quick breakdown of the first round match ups with predictions. Buster and I will be going head to head throughout the playoffs. May the best (or luckiest) man win.

To keep you interested, I am going to start in the East. This should force you to read all match ups until I get to the one everybody is waiting for, The Oklahoma City Thunder.

Here we go;

THE EASTERN CONFERENCE:

#1 Miami (66-16)  vs #8 Milwaukee (34-44)

 To begin with, any team that can't play .500 basketball during the regular season shouldn't qualify for the playoffs. But, we don't make the rules and they do need 8 teams to be fair. On the other hand, if the Heat were given a bye in this round, the results would be the same. The Bucks are a scrappy team but the Heat will want to take advantage of extra rest by sending the Bucks fishing early. Miami wins in a sweep, 4-0.

#2 New York (54-28) vs #7 Boston (41-40)

The Celtics have an emotional edge in this first round match up. The Boston marathon bombings are fresh in the minds of every American and the loss of Rajon Rondo for the season spurred Boston to pretty decent play in his absence. However, the emotion of recent events will probably only last until the tip-off of game 3 in The Garden, and maybe not even then if the Celtics limp in 0-2. Carmelo Anthony proved in the last half of the season that he can do what he wants if he puts his mind to it. The supporting staff led by Tyson Chandler will have winning on their mind and nothing else. I think emotion will give Boston at least 1 win in the series, maybe 2. The Garden remains one of the toughest home court advantages in the East and the Celtics still have Pierce and Garnett. But, it won't be enough to win the series. Knicks win 4-2.

#3 Indiana (49-32) vs  #6 Atlanta (44-38)

The Pacers are the best bet to unseat the Heat in the East this year. The Pacers won 2 of 3 from Miami this season and played them well. But,  they have to get past the Hawks first. The Atlanta Hawks, much like their NFL counterpart the Falcons, seem to play well in the regular season but falter in the playoffs. The Pacers pose a real threat. They are a complete team with out a real stand out superstar. They play solid team defense and score enough to win more often than lose. They are a tough match up for anyone. The Pacers have their eyes on a trip to Miami in the conference finals and they will see this series as warm up. I'll give the Hawks a game at home but I see the Pacers winning easy in the series. Pacers win 4-1.

#4 Brooklyn (49-33) vs #5 Chicago (45-37)

This series is a tough one to call. The Nets have been up and down this year and the Bulls have been dealt some bad breaks. The Bull's have proven that they can win in the playoffs with out Rose and win big. They went in to the playoffs last year as the team no one wanted to play, they come in this year the same way. I'm not sold on the Nets yet and won't be till they win a series. The Bulls have history and tradition, the Net's have a new name and address. I'm going to call this a back and forth series coming down to a 7th and deciding game. If the Bulls can get it to a game 7,  I say they take the series. Chicago, in a tough series, 4-3.


THE WESTERN CONFERENCE:


#1 Oklahoma City (60-22) vs #8 Houston (45-37)

I'll try not to be a homer here. When you look at this match up from a purely statistical standpoint, it's pretty darn even. Heck,  the Rockets even top the Thunder in several statistical categories. I covered most of Oklahoma City's weaknesses in my previous blog. They seem to have corrected most of them in the last two weeks of the season. This is the first round of the playoffs - statistics are thrown out the window, at least for the first couple of games. The Thunder tasted both sweet success and bitter defeat last year and they want redemption. They are a better team than the Rockets and when they play to their potential, they don't often get beat. They also have recent, valuable playoff experience that the Rockets lack. I'll give the Rockets a home win, just for the Harden factor, but the Thunder win the rest. OKC  wins 4-1.

#2 San Antonio (58-24) vs #7 LA Lakers (45-37)

Once the Spurs realized that the Thunder would likely take the top seed, they promptly secured the #2 seed by losing a couple of their last games. Kobe Bryant predicted that the Lakers would reach the playoffs, and they did, but they will have to go forward with out him. the Lakers did win their last game against the Rockets,  assuring that they wouldn't have to face their nemesis in Oklahoma City. LA has no desire to play the Thunder in a series. They won't fare much better with the Spurs. Popovich doesn't lose many series, especially in the first round. The Lakers can play well without Kobe, but not against quality competition, and not for a 7 game series. Will the Lakers win a game? Maybe. Will they challenge for the series? No. Spurs win, 4-1.

#3 Denver (57-25) vs #6 Golden State (47-35)

This should be a lopsided series in favor of the Nuggets. George Karl knows playoff basketball and Denver plays tough all the time. The loss of Gallinari will be tough to overcome in a 7 game series but Denver should find a way. Golden State is a good team but they don't have the year in year out playoff experience that the Nuggets do. The Warriors will compete but, in the end, the the Nuggets should win the series pretty easily. In fact, Denver in a sweep, 4-0.

#4 LA Clippers (56-26) vs #5 Memphis (56-26)

This series matches two teams that couldn't be any different. The high flying Clippers against the stingy, defensive minded Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are the team that no one wants to play in the West. They are playoff hardened and hungry. The Clippers are coming off a record season for the historically worst team in the West. They do have the best all round point guard in Chris Paul and the ever improving Blake Griffin. The Grizzlies counter with attitude and a simple lack of fear for any opponent. If the Clippers play fast, team ball and Paul controls the environment,  they will win. However, I think this comes down to a game 7 in the City of Angels. Clippers win, in a tough series, 4-3.

There you have it. If you were looking for a stat filled blog with statistical reasons for winners and losers, I apologize but that blog would have been long and boring. Hey, It's the first round. We will get a little deeper in to the numbers in the latter rounds, when they really matter.

I still believe the Oklahoma City Thunder will get through the West and claim their second consecutive Western Conference Championship. I'm not so sure about the Heat. They can't be near as hungry as they were last year. Although, they have proven that they can turn their game on and off at will. The Pacers and Knicks will have something to say about it before the dust settles. If I am wrong, get ready for a rematch of last years NBA finals.

For Buster.

Buster's NBA Playoff First Round Matchups and Predictions

We have made it through all 82 games of the regular season, and it is finally time for the payoff. There is nothing more exciting to watch in the sports world than the NBA Playoffs, unless of course, your team didn’t make it.(Sorry once again Bobcat fans)

Here is a quick breakdown of the first round match ups with predictions. My buddy CGilmartin and I will be going head to head throughout the entire playoffs. The winner of each round will be announced on our Twitter page.


Eastern Conference:

#1 Miami (66-16) vs. #8 Milwaukee (34-44)
Anyone who says that the Eastern Conference is better than the West should just take a look at this matchup to realize that they are wrong. When the eighth seed in your bracket has lost ten more games than they have won, something is seriously wrong. Miami will have no problem winning this series, but will give up one game in Milwaukee. It is bound to happen, its Miami, they always give up one! Miami wins 4-1.

#2 New York (54-28) vs. #7 Boston (41-40)
Wow, so much to say about this one and the city of Boston. Such a tragedy where it is very difficult to find any good out of what happened. The entire city will want to show to the world that they are going to overcome this. There isn't a better chance than to make a run in the playoffs. However, without the leader in assist in the NBA, Rajon Rondo, it will be difficult for this team to find that offensive spark they once had. Carmelo Anthony is showing no signs of slowing down his offensive pace and will run right through Boston. I hate to say it, but New York wins in a sweep 4-0.

#3 Indiana (49-32) vs. #6 Atlanta (44-38)
The Pacers are the team that I predicted to be in the Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the beginning of the season. Despite the adversity and injuries this team had to overcome, I am going to stay with that prediction. Josh Smith and Al Horford will give Indiana all they want on the boards and through scoring, but Paul George and Roy Hibbert won't be having any of that as they defeat Atlanta in six games. Indiana wins 4-2.

#4 Brooklyn (49-33) vs. #5 Chicago (45-37)
This series has the potential to be one of the sloppiest series of the entire first round. Chicago has proven to be a team who can win without D Rose, and will have to continue to do so in order to win. Because there is no sign of his return anytime soon. Keep an eye out for Nate Robinson to continue his hot steak off the bench. He will give Chicago that spark they need to make it through this series. Brooklyn will look for their big man Brook Lopez to lead them with his 19.4 points per game. Joakim Noah is listed as doubtful for the first game of this series, however, this will not be enough for Brooklyn to make it through this one. Chicago wins 4-2.

Western Conference:

#1 Oklahoma City (60-22) vs. #8 Houston (45-37)
Isn't it crazy that here we are one year from last year playing against once our very own, James Harden? If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that we would be playing Houston in the first round against James Harden, I would have said you're crazy! I am not a big believer in "Linsanity" but I do think that Harden and Lin are good enough to steal one from the Thunder in Houston. This should be a very easy series for the Thunder to manage, they win 4-1.

#2 San Antonio (58-24) vs. #7 LA Lakers (45-37)
The Lakers had one of the worst starts to a season in a long time. Bringing in Dwight Howard and Steve Nash should have solved all of their problems from last year right? Well it obviously didn't as this team had to win their final games to qualify for the playoffs. The tragic loss of Kobe Bryant due to his torn Achilles, kill all chances of the Lakers even winning a game this year in the playoffs. I wish for a speedy recovery for Kobe Bean, because he will be needed, next season. San Antonio wins in an easy sweep 4-0.

#3 Denver (57-25) vs. #6 Golden State (47-35)
Golden State is one of my favorite teams to watch in the NBA. The Warriors will give Memphis all they want in this one. Stephen Curry and David Lee will provide real problems for Denver. They combine for one of the best duo's in the league. The Nuggets will be led by Ty Lawson and the defense over Kenneth Faried. Denver will barely escape from this one, and win the series 4-2.

#4 LA Clippers (56-26) vs. #5 Memphis (56-26)
These teams having the same record had pretty much an identical season. Both teams looked like they could win the Conference at times, but also had times of being one of the worst teams. The high flying and explosive Clippers will be a great match up for the outstanding defense of Memphis. Memphis will give the Clips some struggles, but Blake Griffin and Chris Paul will take care of this one in six. The Clippers win 4-2.

There you have it, the very simple predictions of the first round. We will get more into detail as the playoffs continue. But right now this is all you get. I really do believe that the Thunder have what it takes to get back to the Finals again. Miami on the other hand, they will have to turn their game up to make it back. The Pacers WILL beat the Heat and make it to the NBA Finals. Make sure you subscribe to our blog for updates throughout the entire playoffs. You won't want to miss anything!

Thunder Update 8: The Season

We made it Thunder fans. We made it an entire season without the beard. Who would have thought? Not only did we make it through, but also we ended up better without him. The Thunder capture the first one seed in history, and the Rockets get the bottom of the barrel with the eighth seed. James Harden left a legacy here in Oklahoma City that will probably never be forgotten, but if you were to ask me who I wanted on the team I would say Kevin Martin every single time.

James Harden put up better numbers than Martin as the Thunder’s sixth man. In Harden’s last year as a Thunder he put up an outstanding 16.8 points per game. That is just 2.8 more points per game than Martin’s 14.0. However, Harden did average almost five more minutes per game than Martin. The reason why Martin is more valuable in my eyes is his unselfish play and his ability to make three’s at any part of the court at any time needed. Harden did have a few clutch moments, but shot an average of 39.0 percent from the three. Which is an outstanding average don’t get me wrong, it just doesn’t match up to Martin’s 43 percent. I honestly believe that if Martin got the minutes that Harden had we would put up better numbers. Martin averaged 31 minutes last year in Houston and put up 17.1 points per game. Both are great basketball players, but one represents what this team and city really is all about better than the other, and his name is Kevin Martin.

This season the Thunder finished the season with a record of 60-22. This is the first time the team has reached 60 wins since being here in Oklahoma City, and the first time in franchise history since 97. Having reached the NBA Playoffs three years in a row, improvement from the last three years seemed a bit unrealistic. But to say that this team just “improved” is an understatement. The Thunder took the number one seed in the Western Conference for the first time since they were the SuperSonics in 1994.

What is the difference between this year’s season, and the previous seasons in Oklahoma City? This year the expectations for greatness were higher than ever. That is the main difference from last year. In the past it has been to get a winning record, and then to make it to the playoffs. Or perhaps for the team to just “do good”. Now fans are wanting so much more (which they absolutely have the right to do so), they want an NBA Title. Even being the number three seed in last year’s playoffs, winning the title wasn’t even thought about until we barely escaped the Spurs. Falling just short of three more wins for the best record in franchise history, I guess you could say the team handled the pressure very well this season. All eyes will be on the Thunder and Miami to see if they will meet again in this year’s NBA Finals.

The Thunder really came together as a team this season. Last year it was all about the “big three” with Durant, Westbrook, and Harden. People have wondered who will step up into the spot of the Harden, but if you ask me, we are better without a “big three”. Russell Westbrook finished the season in seventh place for assist with 7.4 per game, which was also a career high. The “Honey Badger” also finished sixth in the league in scoring with 23.2 points per game. Kevin Durant continued to do what he does best this season, score! Durant gave up the scoring title this season to benefit his team. Durant still finished second in the league in scoring with 28.1 points per game. Durant finished behind Carmelo Anthony who played 14 less games than Durant and shot 55 more times. Serge Ibaka (AKA Air Congo) finished first in the league in blocked shots. Ibaka averaged 3.03 blocks per game, but also with an outstanding 13.2 points per game and 7.7 rebounds per game. One thing is for sure, when we are looking for the Thunder to make a push through the playoffs this year you can count on these guys to lead the team, with the help on the defensive side of the ball from Thabo Sefolosha, and help off the bench from Kevin Martin.


Here are the final standings through the entire season:
*4/18/13 Note Worthy: The Lakers and Rockets squeeze into the playoffs as the seven and eight seeds.
*Playoff qualifiers in bold

Eastern Conference Standings:

Atlantic:
New York(54-28)
Brooklyn(48-33)
Boston(41-40)
Philadelphia(34-48)
Toronto(34-48)

Central:
Indiana(49-32)
Chicago(43-27)
Milwaukee(37-43)
Detroit(28-52)
Cleveland(24-56)

Southeast:
Miami(64-16)
Atlanta(45-37)
Washington(29-53)
Charlotte(21-61)
Orlando(20-62)

Western Conference Standings:

Southwest:
San Antonio(58-24)
Memphis(54-26)
Houston(45-35)
Dallas(40-40)
New Orleans(27-54)

Northwest:
Oklahoma City(59-21)
Denver(56-26)
Utah(43-39)
Portland(33-39)
Minnesota(31-51)

Pacific:
LA Clippers(56-26)
Golden St.(47-35)
LA Lakers(45-37)
Sacramento(28-54)
Phoenix(25-57)

The Trade...

      It's been almost an entire season since the trade that sent Thunder fan favorite James Harden to the Houston Rockets for little known (in these parts) shooting guard/small forward Kevin Martin. Perhaps it's time to do a little evaluation.

We all know the story of "The Beard" James Harden. Selected third overall in the 2009 NBA draft by the Thunder, Harden arrived in Oklahoma City and immediately impacted a team that won only 23 games the previous season. Harden helped the Thunder to a 50-32 season and a spot in the NBA playoffs. In his first year with the Thunder Harden played 76 games averaging 10 pts, 2 assist and 3 rebounds in about 23 minutes per game. This after spending two seasons at Arizona State where he averaged 19 pts, 5.4 rebounds and 3.7 assist while shooting 51% from the field. In OKC, though, he was playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Playing time would be hard to come by and breaking a starting five that featured defensive specialist Thabo Sefalosha at shooting guard wasn't going to happen. The rookie settled in to the second five and developed a quick two man game with thunder big man Nick Collison. Harden also developed a deadly ability to both drive the lane and hit the big three when needed. When he got the opportunity to play with Durant and Westbrook, he made the most of it and by his third year he was widely considered a player at the same level as the two all stars.

By his third NBA season, Harden was averaging 17 pts, 5.4 rebounds, 3.6 assist and hitting 50% of his field goals and 40% from the three point line. He was also deadly at the line getting there often and hitting 85% of his free throws. He was the third leading scorer and the NBA's sixth man on a team that was approaching *50 wins for the third straight season, looking at its second consecutive division title, it's first conference championship and a trip to the NBA finals.

So what happened?

Hardens fourth season was the final season of his first contract. He would be a restricted free agent after the season. That means that he could entertain offers from other clubs but the Thunder would have the right to match the contract and keep him. Thunder GM Sam Presti has proven to be a savvy numbers guy and he knew that signing Harden would be difficult. Harden made little secret  that he believed he was good enough to start in the NBA and that he could be a top scorer. He was right. Anyone that knows the game could see it. Presti had already signed both Durant and Westbrook to long term "max" contracts and the fact was, there just wasn't enough cap space for a third. The only shot at keeping the roster together was to sign Harden to a long term contract for about $20 million shy of the max, and that would stretch the already thin Thunder resources. Presti was also keenly aware that there were several NBA teams that would extend Harden a max offer at the end of the season....and, he knew he couldn't match it.

So, the big question, was Harden in it for the money or, was playing for a championship contender worth a smaller paycheck. Many fans believed that Harden wanted to win and he knew he was on a team that could win a ring or two. The talking heads in sports radio and TV weren't so sure. This time they were right. Presti extended an offer for a four year contract extension worth an estimated $52- $55 million dollars, a lot of money in any sport. Harden turned it down illustrating that this was indeed a business and he believed he was worth more. Presti, faced with the real prospect of not only losing Harden at the end of the season, but getting zero value for a valued asset in the process, decided to trade the man many thought was the final piece of the Thunder's championship puzzle.

Presti brokered a trade between the Thunder and Houston Rockets that sent Harden and three Thunder reserves for Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and some draft picks. Harden immediately signed a five year $80 million dollar contract and was introduced as the foundation of the Rockets rebuilding program. As a starter for the Rockets Harden has averaged 26.2 pts, 4.7 rebounds and 5.9 assist. His FG% has dropped to 45% and he is only hitting 37% from the three point line but he still gets to the FT line often and is still hitting 86% of his free throws.The bottom line is Harden lived up to the hype and is well worth the money.

Kevin Martin came to the Thunder having played seven NBA season with Sacramento and Houston, mostly as a starter and the teams go-to scorer. Kmart faced the same dilemma at OKC that Harden faced; no time in the starting line. Martin brought career averages of 18.4 pts, 2.1 assist and 3.5 rebounds. He shot 44% from the field and 38% from three and, he is always among the league leaders in FT% at 87% for his career. Not bad numbers and certainly comparable to Hardens.

This season KMart is averaging 28 minutes, 14.2 points, 1.4 assist and 2.3 rebounds. He is hitting 45% from the field, 42 % from three point range and a sizzling 89% from the line. Martin has had a mid season slump and does not drive to the basket as well as Harden. However, he has adapted well to his role off the bench and has started to show signs of a similar 2 man game with Nick Collison.

Kevin Martin is no James Harden... but who is?

KMart is a different player. He has that odd shooting motion that half the kids in Oklahoma City are attempting to replicate. He's been asked to come in and replace a beloved player and NBA all Star. A tall task to place on the shoulders of any professional athlete. Martin has done so with grace and professionalism that frankly we didn't often see with Harden. He has embraced the city and the team he now shares with all of us. Would the Thunder have repeated it's magical playoff run of 2011-12 with James Harden? Would we stand a better chance of winning the NBA Championship if Harden had stayed this year? (remember, Harden was a no show against Miami last year) The fact is, we will never know the answer to those questions and frankly, Sam Presti made the only decision he could have. It was the best decision for the Thunder organization long term.

Will Martin sign a new contact? I don't know. I do know this, he is playing for a legitimate contender for the first time in his career and, like all professional athletes, he wants a championship ring. My gut tells me that KMart will place winning over money.

Yes, It would have been nice to have James Harden in a Thunder uniform for one more year. But, it wasn't in the cards. It's no one's fault, least of all Kevin Martin, it's just business. I wish "The Beard" well. I know he will play in the league for a long time. More importantly, I welcome Kevin Martin to our family and I hope he sticks around as long as he wants to.

 

*(For the record, the 2011-12 team finished 47-19 in the strike shortened season but would have easily won 50 with an 82 game schedule)

For Buster.