First, The Eastern Conference:
#1 Miami vs #3 Indiana
If you asked before the Chicago series I would have said that Miami was beatable. I'm not so sure now. Miami dismantled a good Bulls team in four games after a surprising game 1 defeat in round two. It's not that they won the series, it's how they won. After losing the first game in Miami, the Heat won the next three by an average score of 102-80. The Bulls put up a fight in game 5 but they were playing for their season. The Heat won 94-91 and took the series 4-1.
I said in the first round that I thought the Pacers were the only team in the East that could play with, and beat the Heat. They proved it in the regular season going 2-1 against Miami. However, Miami is unbeatable when they play as a team and play with purpose, especially in the East. This series could go 7 games with a Pacers victory or it could result in a quick Miami sweep in 4. This is a hard one to call because the nature of the Pacers play has a tendency to disrupt their opponent. I like Indiana, but I'm not ready to bet against the Heat yet. I say the series goes 6 games with the Heat winning one in Indiana. Miami makes it's third consecutive trip to the NBA Finals.
Miami Heat win, 4-2
The Western Conference:
#2 San Antonio vs #5 Memphis
This series pits the old Spurs against the young, stingy Grizzlies. San Antonio was pushed by a young, explosive Warriors team that really had nothing to lose. Memphis dispatched the number one seed OKC Thunder in 5 very competitive games. Frankly, if Westbrook is healthy, I don't think the Grizzlies make it out of the second round.
Memphis held the high scoring Thunder to just 89.6 points per game. The Spurs averaged 102 against Golden State. San Antonio has more shooters than the Grizzlies can cover. Memphis will have to depend on Randolph and Gasol to give Tim Duncan and the rest of the Spurs big men fits. Duncan can't guard both and he will have a hard time scoring over them. The key to this series will be Parker and Ginobli. Memphis can't handle both at the same time. If both distribute effectively and score the series will go to the Spurs. Both benches have had success in the playoffs this year and are evenly matched. If "Pop" makes the right moves look for San Antonio to reach the NBA Finals for perhaps the last time in this era. I think home court makes all the difference in this series. I see a 7 game series going down to the wire.
San Antonio Spurs win, 4-3
We should have two very competitive series to enjoy. This is why they play the regular season. All four teams play defense and defense wins Championships. I say experience wins over youth in both conferences this year. LeBron James didn't move to Miami to win one championship and he is already 1-1 in Championship series. The clock is ticking in San Antonio and they know this might be the last chance this team has to win the big one. Memphis and Indiana are good teams but they are both in uncharted territory. Their time will come, just not in 2013.
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