OKLAHOMA vs BAYLOR
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| 4-1, 7-1 |
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| 4-0, 7-0 |
Oklahoma travels to Waco Texas this Thursday night to take on 5th ranked and undefeated Baylor. This game should be a barn burner as Baylor enters the game as the top ranked scoring offense in the Big 12 while Oklahoma has the number 2 ranked scoring defense. On the flip side, the Sooners bring the number 6 ranked scoring offense in the Big 12 to take on the top ranked scoring defense. The outcome could range from a defensive battle on both sides of the ball to a shoot out. A defensive battle will favor Oklahoma, Baylor likely wins a shoot out.
Since the inception of the Big 12 Oklahoma is 16-1 against Baylor, including an 8-1 record in Waco. Prior to the 2011 game, Baylor had not beaten OU in the modern era. The average margin of victory for the Sooners is 40-17. Oklahoma has only given up 30 or more 3 times to Baylor and the most points allowed was 45 in 2011. So, history favors the Sooners. But, will history matter on Thursday?
Baylor has scored 447 points in 7 games this season averaging 69.3 per game. No surprise there. In the three season leading up to 2013, Baylor averaged 40 points a game. However, defensively the Bears were giving up an average of 35 per game as well. This season Baylor is only giving up 16 points per game. That's right, the Bears have discovered defense. 70 points scored versus 16 points allowed is scary, in any league.
There is the question of competition. Like Texas Tech, Baylor has feasted on lesser rivals, many at home. The Bears pounded the likes of Wofford, Buffalo and ULM prior to the conference season. In conference, Baylor has faced four of the bottom five Big 12 teams. The toughest game to date was a 35-25 win against Kansas State in Manhattan, a game the Wildcats led 25-21 going in to the 4th quarter. This will certainly be the toughest competition that Baylor has faced yet.
The Sooners have a proud, tradition rich program. Baylor is trying to become proud and has a long way to go to be tradition rich. But, they are having the best season they have ever had and a team that can score 70 on a bad team can surely score 30 on a good one. The biggest question is, can the Sooners score enough to beat the Bears offense. The Bears are already a 9 to 14 point favorite in this game. The over/under is 74. The odds makers expect a shoot out or a blowout. No one is expecting a shut out.
What about the Sooners. OU gave up 30 points and 388 passing yards to Texas Tech. OU held Tech to 10 points off their scoring average but only 20 yards below their passing average, in Norman. This will not beat Baylor. The Sooners scored 38, but against the 7th ranked scoring defense in the conference. They will likely have to score more to beat Baylor. Still wondering about History?
History may favor the Sooners in this series but common sense and statistics favor Baylor in this game. The fact that the game is being played on Thursday is an even stranger omen for OU. I hear Stoops hates Thursday games. If the game were played in Norman, I would give history a nod. But it is in Waco. In fact, Baylor is expecting such a large crowd that they are removing the cover that's has been over the end zone seats for centuries. everything I read and hear suggest that Baylor should win this game and win it comfortably.
Now, before the Sooner nation sets out to hunt me down, there is a bright spot to this commentary. Oklahoma is not often an underdog and they are rarely a double digit dog. Bob Stoops is as proud a coach as they come and he has been known to get his teams up big in games of this nature. Stoops will have his team prepared and they will play with emotion. Texas Tech was a good prep for this game. They play similar offense and decent defense. Stoops will correct any mistakes made in the Tech game in advance of Baylor. Stoops also recognizes that a win will mean OU has taken down two top 10, undefeated teams in succession. A loss will mean waving goodbye to a Big 12 championship and any possibility of a big time bowl game. History (again) says Stoops and the Sooners will be ready. Will it be enough? We will find out Thursday.
The game could turn on a couple of factors. If the Sooner defense can set an early tone like they did against Notre Dame and get an early lead, the flow will favor OU. And, more importantly, if Josh Heupel can put together a decent offensive game plan and the coaches let Blake Bell execute, the Sooners could have a good night. Bell seem to play up to his competition and he's dangerous when told he can't win.
OU will have to play almost perfect on both side of the ball to pull out a victory. The only time they did that this season was in South Bend and you know what happened there. We know the Sooners can play in and win big games, Stoops has a history of doing just that. There is a lot at stake Thursday night for Oklahoma and the Sooners are at their best when everyone bets against them.
CMan's Pick: OU 41 - 38
Busters Pick: Baylor 43-38
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